Uncontrolled NASA debris reentry: tiny chance of ground harm
NASA’s defunct Van Allen Probes (launched in 2012, mission ended in 2019) are on an uncontrolled reentry path. Most of the 600-kg craft is expected to burn up, but a small portion could survive to reach Earth’s surface with an estimated ground-harm risk of about 1 in 4,200. Reentry could occur as soon as Tuesday evening due to solar activity increasing atmospheric drag, prompting NASA and the US Space Force to monitor. The episode underscores ongoing concerns about space debris and the challenge of safely disposing of aging spacecraft.