ISW: Putin overstates Kostyantynivka gains as Russian advances stall and propaganda widens
ISW’s July 3 assessment says Putin’s claim of seizing Kostyantynivka is contradicted by public evidence of only limited gains; Moscow’s briefings appear part of a cognitive warfare effort to show rapid frontline progress. The report notes warnings from the United States about potential Kremlin provocations against NATO states, including Poland, and broader Baltic concerns. Putin’s approval and trust have fallen sharply amid battlefield setbacks and a domestic fuel crisis, as Russia seeks to alleviate shortages through imports and relaxed gasoline standards. On the battlefield, Ukrainian strikes and Russian drone/ missile campaigns continued, but there were no confirmed major Russian advances on July 2–3, aside from contested claims and possible AI-assisted propaganda footage. The update also cites sporadic incidents (e.g., an explosion in Kursk) and ongoing Ukrainian operations against energy and logistics targets in occupied Ukraine.