Outlook-at-Risk: Inflation and Economic Growth in 2023.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has launched Outlook-at-Risk as a regularly updated data product, with new readings for the conditional distributions of real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation to be published each month. Tighter monetary policy affects financial conditions in several ways, and the probability of declines in real activity rises as financial conditions tighten. The probability of the unemployment rate rising by at least 100 basis points over the course of the following year has started to abate but remains elevated. Outlook-at-Risk provides a timely, quantitative approach to measuring risks to the future evolution of the economy.