Unwinding the Hormuz Shock: Why Oil Flows Won't Return Overnight
Diplomatic moves to extend a ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz remain uncertain; even with a new agreement, the first reopening would likely release a stockpile of about 160 million barrels rather than restore full flows, and the real recovery depends on export capacity, months-long mine clearance, and the time needed to restart upstream production and downstream facilities. Global inventories will need replenishment as markets adjust, and the timeline is highly contingent on the durability of any deal, with ongoing risk of renewed disruption.
