Putin’s rosy growth spin clashes with Russia’s war-driven economic strain
Putin frames March 2026 data as ‘restrained but positive’ growth, but independent observers say early 2026 GDP fell year‑on‑year while deficits rose and war spending crowded out private activity; VAT hikes and rising borrowing underline the strain. Ukraine’s SZRU reports Russia has already exceeded its 2026 deficit plan, with regional governments boosting military recruitment spending and social costs. On the battlefield, Russia conducts long-range strikes and infiltration across Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Crimea sectors; Ukraine strikes oil refineries and naval assets, while a 1000-for-1000 prisoner exchange is completed. Analysts say Moscow’s apparent gains rely on state spending and war demand rather than private growth, and sanctions relief could amplify missile threats to Ukraine.