A Fragile Pause: Why Iran’s Cease-Fire Demands a Regional Security Pact
The authors argue that the US-Iran cease-fire failed because it was a narrowly transactional bargain that postponed core disputes; without a broader political process and a regional security framework—linking sanctions relief to verifiable nuclear concessions, credible guarantees from the US and Israel, and a sustained Gulf-wide dialogue—the pause risks unraveling into wider conflict. They warn that such transactional deals can manage symptoms but won't resolve underlying tensions, drawing parallels to pre-WWI diplomacy and urging a Helsinki-like multilateral approach to address missiles, navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and noninterference.