2024 Economy: No Landing in Sight as Recession Looms

Economists surveyed by the Philadelphia Fed have embraced the notion of a "no landing" scenario for the economy in 2024, with a consensus forecast of a 1.7% increase in real GDP and a small rise in joblessness. Inflation is expected to trend down slowly, with the personal consumption expenditure price index projected to be at the Fed's 2% target through 2024. However, there are concerns of a hard landing, as the probability estimates for negative growth in the first three quarters of 2024 have increased. Economists' forecasts for 2024 vary, with some predicting a drop in GDP and others expecting stronger growth.