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Navigating the Economic Fog: Barkin Sees Steady Growth Amid AI Buzz and Inflation Risk
economy14 days ago

Navigating the Economic Fog: Barkin Sees Steady Growth Amid AI Buzz and Inflation Risk

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin argues that the U.S. economy keeps moving despite lingering policy fog, AI-driven uncertainty, and geopolitical shocks. Inflation has cooled from its peak but remains above target, unemployment sits low while the labor market feels fragile, and demand is narrow and skewed toward AI-related activity and wealthier consumers. The Fed has cut rates but held steady recently to await clearer signals about the path forward, as policymakers weigh risks from oil price shocks and global dynamics.

via Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond|
#ai#economy#fed
Jobless claims dip as labor market stays resilient amid steady growth outlook
economy22 days ago

Jobless claims dip as labor market stays resilient amid steady growth outlook

Initial unemployment claims fell to 205,000 for the week ending March 14 (lowest since mid‑January), while continuing claims rose to 1.86 million for the week ending March 7. Federal Reserve Chair Powell described the 4.4% unemployment rate as stable and said hiring and layoffs remain unusually low. Fed officials project unemployment around 4.4% this year, with GDP growth seen at about 2.4% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027, and they expect at least one quarter-point rate cut later this year as the economy stays resilient despite layoffs at large firms.

via CFO Dive|
#economy#fed#gdp-growth
Fed Holds Rates, Signals Cautious Path Amid Elevated Uncertainty
economy24 days ago

Fed Holds Rates, Signals Cautious Path Amid Elevated Uncertainty

The Federal Reserve left the target federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75%, saying growth remains solid but inflation remains somewhat elevated and uncertainty is high, including risks from Middle East developments. The committee emphasized a data-driven approach and said it stands ready to adjust policy to achieve maximum employment and 2% inflation over the longer run, with one dissenter favoring a 25-basis-point rate cut.

via Federal Reserve Board (.gov)|
#economy#federal-reserve#fomc
March jobless claims hold near 213,000 as labor market stays sluggish but stable
economy-and-politics1 month ago

March jobless claims hold near 213,000 as labor market stays sluggish but stable

First-time unemployment claims held at 213,000 in the latest week, marking a third straight week with little change and suggesting a sluggish but generally stable labor market. Continuing claims fell to 1.85 million, and economists had expected a rise to 215,000, easing concerns prompted by February’s payroll weakness.

via MarketWatch|
#economy#economy-and-politics#employment
January 2026 Economic Snapshot: Jobs Up, Inflation Down, But Beef and Gas Still Climb
business1 month ago

January 2026 Economic Snapshot: Jobs Up, Inflation Down, But Beef and Gas Still Climb

January 2026’s Economy Hate Watch update shows a mixed bag: unemployment ticked down to 4.3%, inflation eased to 2.4% month-over-month, gas averaged about $2.94 per gallon, and beef hit $6.69 per pound, while the Dow rose about 1.6%. No stimulus check yet, Trump’s approval sits around 37% per Pew (Gallup no longer tracks it), and the piece includes reader comments illustrating a polarized response as he begins a second year in office.

via BuzzFeed|
#approval-rating#business#dow-jones
Yields retreat as traders await fresh inflation data
markets1 month ago

Yields retreat as traders await fresh inflation data

U.S. Treasuries eased as investors braced for a wholesale inflation read (PPI) while parsing a still-robust labor market: 10-year yields around 4.023%, 30-year about 4.675%, and 2-year near 3.452%. Initial unemployment claims for the week ended Feb. 21 came in at 212,000, below expectations of 215,000, signaling resilience despite a solid January payrolls print. Traders expect Friday’s PPI to rise about 0.3% for both headline and core measures, a cooler report that could boost risk appetite for stocks.

via CNBC|
#inflation#markets#producer-price-index
AI Doomsday Scenario Spooks Markets
business1 month ago

AI Doomsday Scenario Spooks Markets

A speculative Substack piece from Citrini Research envisions AI agents triggering a 2027–28 downturn: mass white‑collar unemployment, disruption of software and middlemen businesses, a wave of private‑credit defaults and a mortgage crisis, and a 57% S&P crash accompanied by Occupy Silicon Valley protests. While many analysts chalk it up to sensationalism, the scenario raises questions about how AI could reshape demand, jobs, and policy responses in a real economy.

via The Guardian|
#ai#business#markets
AI Bear Case: A Hypothetical Path to a 40% S&P Selloff
markets1 month ago

AI Bear Case: A Hypothetical Path to a 40% S&P Selloff

MarketWatch summarizes a Citrini Research scenario in which widespread AI adoption disrupts demand and boosts automation, triggering white‑collar job losses and weaker consumer spending. The model envisions a non‑cyclical downturn that could push the S&P 500 down roughly 38–40% from 2026 highs by 2027–28, with ripple effects across bonds, private credit, and housing. The authors stress it’s a scenario‑based exercise, not a forecast.

via MarketWatch|
#artificial-intelligence#economic-impact#markets
Fed minutes reveal split on rate path: holding cuts for now, with hikes on the table if inflation persists
economy1 month ago

Fed minutes reveal split on rate path: holding cuts for now, with hikes on the table if inflation persists

Minutes from the January FOMC show a divided committee: most officials favored pausing further rate cuts for now unless inflation clearly slows, while some floated the possibility of hikes if inflation remains above target; the statement was adjusted to reflect a more balanced outlook, and markets price in a potential June cut followed by another move later in the year if disinflation proceeds and labor markets stay resilient.

via CNBC|
#economy#fed#fomc