BofA: Fed rate cuts unlikely before 2027 amid inflation and strong jobs

Bank of America Global Research now expects the Federal Reserve to hold rates and not begin easing until the second half of 2027, citing stubborn inflation around 3.3% and solid job growth (April payrolls +115,000). This revises earlier expectations for cuts this year as policymakers weigh inflation, AI-driven productivity, tariffs and the Iran war; CME’s FedWatch shows less than a 50% chance of cuts before 2027, and the last rate cut was December 2025 at 3.5%–3.75%.