Economists Warn of Looming Downturn Despite Ebbing Inflation and Stable Jobs Market

Fears of a recession in the US are easing as inflation cools and the job market remains strong, but economists still warn of a possible downturn in the next 12 months. While some experts believe it is a toss-up between recession and growth, a Bloomberg survey shows that economists still give a 60 percent chance of a recession. However, recent data on housing starts, house prices, and reduced inflation risk have led some economists to be more optimistic. The Leading Economic Index, which measures future economic activity, has declined for 15 consecutive months, raising concerns. The Federal Reserve's rate hikes have helped stabilize inflation, but the index suggests economic activity may continue to decelerate. President Joe Biden, facing a struggling economy, has recently touted his policies as "Bidenomics," taking credit for falling inflation and aiming to turn the economy into a strength for his 2024 re-election campaign.