Fed Faces Uncertain July Path as Inflation Cools

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh heads into the July meeting amid mixed signals: inflation has slowed toward the 2% target, but policymakers remain split on whether to hike, hold, or later cut, with markets broadly expecting the funds rate to stay at 3.5%–3.75% for now. The decision will hinge on incoming data and geopolitical/tariff developments, as Warsh maintains a focus on price stability without clear forward guidance while five advisory task forces prepare recommendations that could shape policy before year-end.