Inflation Could Boost 2027 Social Security COLA — If CPI-W Surges in 2026

Social Security's 2027 cost-of-living adjustment depends on CPI-W readings from July–September 2026. If inflation stays elevated through that window, retirees could see a sizable COLA boost, effectively a large automatic increase, but that only helps if living costs rise accordingly. Politically charged hopes for growth-friendly policies won’t directly set the COLA; the Fed’s projections still imply modest easing. The key number to watch is CPI-W for the third quarter of 2026 to determine the 2027 COLA size.