Inflation Erodes 2025 Wage Gains as Real Pay Stalls

Real wage growth in 2025 effectively stalled as inflation offsets earnings gains: inflation-adjusted pay for private-sector workers is flat since January, with production and nonsupervisory wages up only 0.1% over the period. Inflation, running around 4.2% over the year to May, has eroded earlier gains, driven largely by energy prices tied to the Iran conflict. Economists see energy-sector inflation as the culprit limiting broader price pressures. Politically, Trump praises the numbers and argues oil will fall after the war, while the White House attributes relief to energy abundance and a resolution to the Iran situation.