All articles tagged with #labor market
Economists, AI specialists, and superforecasters increasingly model AI progress as disruptive, predicting a modest dip in labor-force participation toward about 60% by 2030 under rapid AI progress, but with no consensus on a doomsday scenario and acknowledging that policy and adaptation will shape how work changes.
New research using official labour statistics corroborates private payroll data, showing about half a million fewer coders today than pre-LLM-era trends. The 'bundles of tasks' framework explains why junior and contractor coding jobs are more exposed to AI displacement, while senior developers and domain experts resist as AI automates lower-value tasks and multiplies the rest, implying a widening divide in white-collar work as AI capabilities grow.
An Ipsos/Epoch AI survey of about 2,000 American adults shows AI use is common, with 50% having used AI in the past week and 20% of full-time workers reporting AI has taken over parts of their job; about 15% have started new AI-enabled tasks. Most usage involves only 1–2 quick tasks per day, while autonomous AI agents remain rare (around 8%). Popular tools include ChatGPT, Gemini, and Copilot, highlighting evolving impacts on the labor market.
The February 2026 JOLTS release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows job openings at 6.9 million (little changed), hires at 4.8 million, and total separations at 5.0 million. Within separations, quits were 3.0 million and layoffs/discharges 1.7 million, signaling a still-tight but softening U.S. labor market across the total nonfarm sector and by establishment size/industry.
Powell said the U.S. economy faces mixed signals: downside labor-market risks argue for keeping rates low, while upside inflation risks argue against simply staying accommodative. The Fed remains committed to returning inflation to 2%, inflation expectations look stable, and there’s no immediate rate decision due to unresolved effects from the Iran war. The Fed’s March dot plot still indicates one rate cut in 2026, underscoring uncertainty about the policy path amid opposing forces.
For the third time ever, women now outnumber men in the U.S. workforce, driven by rapid growth in health-care jobs dominated by women and a decline in male participation, with many expanding roles paying less than traditional male-dominated sectors. Experts note barriers keep men from HEAL professions (health, education, care), and that boosting male participation could help address labor shortages and improve representation in vital fields.
Citi’s Jay Collins argues AI and robotics will disrupt the labor market and widen wealth gaps, outlining four AI phases (cognitive, agentic, physical, AGI) and urging a policy shift from traditional tools to fiscal solutions—taxing AI/robots, reforming welfare, and a phased 'productivity dividend'—to distribute gains without killing incentives, potentially via a bipartisan commission to map a practical path forward.
Geopolitical tensions with Iran and rising oil prices have lifted recession risk expectations on Wall Street, with Moody’s Analytics at 48.6%, Goldman Sachs at 30%, Wilmington Trust at 45%, and EY Parthenon at 40%; economists warn the odds are elevated though not certain, driven by a fragile labor market and inflation pressures, while a diplomatic resolution or policy support could help avert a downturn.
A new Gallup survey shows Americans' optimism about the job market has cooled since 2022, even though hiring remains active, signaling a more cautious outlook on opportunities and wage growth.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang urged a measured, informed stance on AI, warning against doomism and heavy-handed regulation while stressing that AI should augment workers—changing job roles and enabling skilled workers to do more with AI—rather than driving mass layoffs.
Initial unemployment claims fell to 205,000 for the week ending March 14 (lowest since mid‑January), while continuing claims rose to 1.86 million for the week ending March 7. Federal Reserve Chair Powell described the 4.4% unemployment rate as stable and said hiring and layoffs remain unusually low. Fed officials project unemployment around 4.4% this year, with GDP growth seen at about 2.4% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027, and they expect at least one quarter-point rate cut later this year as the economy stays resilient despite layoffs at large firms.
A Brookings Institution study for the National Bureau of Economic Research finds that among 37.1 million U.S. workers in high AI-exposure occupations, about 26.5 million have above-median adaptive capacity and are well positioned to find new work if displaced, while roughly 6.1 million face both high AI exposure and low adaptive capacity (mostly in clerical/administrative roles, about 86% of whom are women). Outcomes vary by location, with university towns and Mountain West/Midwest midsize cities hardest; workers in web development, marketing, and IT in large markets tend to adapt better and shift to new roles. The study aims to guide policymakers in targeting support to those most at risk.
Researchers at GovAI and Brookings estimate AI exposure across 350+ occupations and assess how easily workers could switch to other well‑paying jobs if AI reduces demand. They find high exposure for web designers and secretaries, with secretaries among the most vulnerable and women making up a large share of those at risk. The study stresses that while many workers may transition to new roles, forecasts are uncertain and depend on factors like education, savings, age (under 55), and local job opportunities; overall, most will adapt, but a minority could struggle.
U.S. job openings exceeded forecasts at the start of the year, signaling that hiring remains resilient in parts of the economy even as the broader labor market shows signs of cooling.
First-time unemployment claims held at 213,000 in the latest week, marking a third straight week with little change and suggesting a sluggish but generally stable labor market. Continuing claims fell to 1.85 million, and economists had expected a rise to 215,000, easing concerns prompted by February’s payroll weakness.