Labor market shows a cautious warming, but signs remain mixed

Economists expect June nonfarm payrolls to rise about 115,000 with the unemployment rate holding at 4.3%, a sign of gentle warming in the labor market as immigration declines and the workforce ages. However, the picture is still mixed: May hiring was weak, average hourly earnings lag inflation, and the quits rate remains depressed, suggesting workers haven’t felt the warmth yet. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ June payrolls report is released today, following mixed data from private sources like ADP.