Natixis: Fed could deliver a one-and-done hike if inflation cools this fall

Natixis economists expect the Fed to lift policy rates to an upper bound of 4.0% at the next FOMC, potentially the cycle’s only move if inflation moderates in the final quarter; they also anticipate the 2026 SEP showing a 4.1% end-2026 rate with wide dispersion, and expect Chair Warsh to offer limited forward guidance.