Oil price resilience defies Middle East disruption

Despite the Strait of Hormuz being closed for about 10 weeks, Brent sits around $100 as Morgan Stanley notes the largest oil supply disruption in history (roughly 12.3 million barrels per day shortfall across seven countries) yet prices haven’t spiked. The gap is being filled mainly by a surge in U.S. exports (about 3.8 mbpd) and a drop in Chinese imports (about 5.5 mbpd), aided by ample pre-war inventories and market optimism that prices had already priced in a disruption. Analysts warn conditions could change if the disruption persists or negotiations, notably with Iran, drag on, potentially lifting prices later.