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China Imports

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Oil price resilience defies Middle East disruption
economy16 days ago

Oil price resilience defies Middle East disruption

Despite the Strait of Hormuz being closed for about 10 weeks, Brent sits around $100 as Morgan Stanley notes the largest oil supply disruption in history (roughly 12.3 million barrels per day shortfall across seven countries) yet prices haven’t spiked. The gap is being filled mainly by a surge in U.S. exports (about 3.8 mbpd) and a drop in Chinese imports (about 5.5 mbpd), aided by ample pre-war inventories and market optimism that prices had already priced in a disruption. Analysts warn conditions could change if the disruption persists or negotiations, notably with Iran, drag on, potentially lifting prices later.

Oil prices stay flat as US exports offset China demand drop
markets17 days ago

Oil prices stay flat as US exports offset China demand drop

Despite a major Middle East supply disruption and the Strait of Hormuz closure, oil prices have remained relatively flat as the United States boosts exports and China reduces imports, aided by high inventories and inventory-driven destocking by traders. Morgan Stanley notes US seaborne exports rose to about 8.9 million barrels per day while China’s net imports fell sharply, helping shield the world from the supply shock. The base case projects a partial reopening of flows by late summer and full normalization by year-end, likely keeping Brent near current levels; a prolonged outage could trigger demand destruction and push Brent toward roughly $130–$150 a barrel if the disruption persists.

Kharg Island Under Fire: Iran’s Oil Lifeline Faces Global Ripples
energy2 months ago

Kharg Island Under Fire: Iran’s Oil Lifeline Faces Global Ripples

Kharg Island is Iran's oil export hub, handling about 90% of shipments and a long-standing vulnerability near the Strait of Hormuz; after U.S. strikes on Kharg targets, markets fear damage to infrastructure could tighten global supply as Iran continues to ship 1.1–1.5 million barrels per day (much of it to China) and holds about 18 million of its 30 million-barrel storage capacity, with Tehran warning of retaliation if energy infrastructure is attacked.