"The Great Disinflation: Goldman Sachs Predicts 3 Consecutive Interest Rate Cuts by Summer"

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Source: Fortune
"The Great Disinflation: Goldman Sachs Predicts 3 Consecutive Interest Rate Cuts by Summer"
Photo: Fortune
TL;DR Summary

Goldman Sachs' chief economist, Jan Hatzius, predicts that "The Great Disinflation" is underway, with global inflation continuing to plummet. Hatzius expects multiple major central banks in developed markets to make earlier and more aggressive interest rate cuts in 2024 as price increases fade. In the US, he foresees three back-to-back interest rate cuts in the first half of next year, followed by two additional cuts by year-end. Hatzius also expects three more rate cuts in 2025, leaving the Fed funds rate between 3.25% and 3.5% by September of that year. This forecast is seen as a victory lap for Hatzius, who has been one of the most bullish forecasters on the Street. Goldman Sachs believes that lower inflation, sinking interest rates, and a robust labor market will boost GDP growth and corporate earnings, making it exceptionally friendly for risk asset markets.

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