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Gdp Growth

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China delivers 5% Q1 growth on export strength, despite tepid domestic demand
economy1 month ago

China delivers 5% Q1 growth on export strength, despite tepid domestic demand

China’s economy grew 5% in the first quarter, beating economists’ expectations as robust exports offset weak domestic demand. Industrial output rose 5.7% and retail sales gained 1.7% in March, while fixed-asset investment climbed 1.7% and property investment fell 11.2%. Unemployment stood at 5.4%. Beijing kept a 4.5–5% annual target, but the outlook faces pressure from higher energy costs linked to the Iran conflict and a softer global demand environment.

via CNBC|
#china-economy#economy#exports
Core inflation remains at 3% as pre-war data show softer demand and slower growth
economy1 month ago

Core inflation remains at 3% as pre-war data show softer demand and slower growth

February core PCE rose 3% and headline inflation 2.8%, while consumer spending fell 0.1% and personal income rose 0.4%. GDP for Q4 was revised down to 0.5% growth (down from 0.7%), driven by weaker investment and lower real final sales. The report suggests stagflation pressures even before the Iran conflict boosts energy prices, with Fed officials expected to keep rates on hold as inflation remains above target.

via CNBC|
#core-inflation#economy#energy-prices
Oil at About $125/Barrel Could Push US Economy Toward Recession, Zandi Warns
business2 months ago

Oil at About $125/Barrel Could Push US Economy Toward Recession, Zandi Warns

Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi says US recession risk is rising and could be triggered if oil averages about $125 per barrel in Q2; their simulations identify that level as a plausible tipping point amid Iran tensions and a weak labor market. Although not predicting an outright downturn in their baseline outlook, higher oil prices have shaved roughly 15–20 basis points from 2026 real GDP growth, and their April forecast expects a further rise in oil prices that would weigh on growth and push recession probabilities higher.

via Business Insider|
#business#gdp-growth#mark-zandi
Jobless claims dip as labor market stays resilient amid steady growth outlook
economy2 months ago

Jobless claims dip as labor market stays resilient amid steady growth outlook

Initial unemployment claims fell to 205,000 for the week ending March 14 (lowest since mid‑January), while continuing claims rose to 1.86 million for the week ending March 7. Federal Reserve Chair Powell described the 4.4% unemployment rate as stable and said hiring and layoffs remain unusually low. Fed officials project unemployment around 4.4% this year, with GDP growth seen at about 2.4% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027, and they expect at least one quarter-point rate cut later this year as the economy stays resilient despite layoffs at large firms.

via CFO Dive|
#economy#fed#gdp-growth
Goldman Sachs Finds AI Spending Had Little Impact on 2025 U.S. Growth
economy3 months ago

Goldman Sachs Finds AI Spending Had Little Impact on 2025 U.S. Growth

Goldman Sachs economists say AI-related investments in 2025 contributed essentially zero to U.S. GDP growth, arguing much of the spending is offset by imported hardware and measurement gaps, challenging the view of AI as a strong growth engine even as roughly $700B is projected to be spent on AI infrastructure this year; surveys also show many firms use AI but do not see productivity or employment gains.

via Gizmodo|
#ai#economy#furman
Unchecked growth threatens Earth's biodiversity, 150 countries warn
environment3 months ago

Unchecked growth threatens Earth's biodiversity, 150 countries warn

More than 150 countries signed an IPBES assessment warning that GDP-focused growth and other unsustainable economic activity are driving biodiversity loss: about 1 in 8 of the world’s roughly 8 million species are threatened and 75% of Earth’s land has been altered by humans. Markets fail to price biodiversity’s services, so the report calls for broad policy, legal, and regulatory reforms—business action alone isn’t enough—amid shifting EU rules and the US’s withdrawal from IPBES.

via politico.eu|
#biodiversity#environment#gdp-growth
Consumption fuels U.S. growth in 2025, with AI acting as a supporting role
economy4 months ago

Consumption fuels U.S. growth in 2025, with AI acting as a supporting role

Analyses show U.S. GDP growth in 2025 was driven primarily by consumer spending, with AI-related capital expenditures ranking a distant second. Adjusted for imports, AI’s net contribution to growth averaged 0.4–0.5 percentage points (roughly 20–25% of growth excluding imports), while software and computers were AI’s biggest GDP contributors rather than data centers. Some analysts argue AI’s impact on GDP is overstated. Quarterly data later in 2025 showed strong growth (Q3 at 4.3% annualized) despite a negative Q1, with Q2’s pace in between. Looking ahead to 2026, consumption is expected to remain resilient, aided by AI investments, possible Fed rate cuts, and unemployment stabilization tied to slower immigration; productivity and job creation will be key watchpoints.

via CNBC|
#ai-investment#consumption#economy
U.S. PCE Inflation Holds at 2.8% as Spending Keeps Economy Expanding
economy4 months ago

U.S. PCE Inflation Holds at 2.8% as Spending Keeps Economy Expanding

U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.2% in November, leaving inflation at 2.8% for both headline and core (October was 2.7%), with energy costs up and food flat. Personal income rose modestly, while spending climbed 0.5% in October and November. The saving rate edged up to 3.5% in November. GDP growth for Q3 was revised to 4.4%, and jobless claims remain near two-year lows, signaling continued spending resilience. Investors expect the Fed to hold rates at the upcoming meeting, with futures pricing in up to two rate cuts later this year.

via CNBC|
#bea-data#consumer-spending#economy
Federal Reserve Rate Cuts and Challenges Expected by 2026
economy4 months ago

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts and Challenges Expected by 2026

The Congressional Budget Office forecasts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2026, with rates settling at 3.4% by 2028, while 10-year Treasury yields are expected to rise slightly, impacting mortgage rates. The report also projects a peak in unemployment at 4.6% in 2026, with GDP growth slowing to around 1.8-2.2% through 2028, influenced by recent fiscal policies and immigration trends. Inflation is expected to remain above 2% in the near term, gradually decreasing by 2028.

via abcnews.go.com|
#economy#federal-reserve#gdp-growth
U.S. Economy and Federal Reserve: Rate Cuts Expected Later This Year
economy4 months ago

U.S. Economy and Federal Reserve: Rate Cuts Expected Later This Year

The speech discusses cautious optimism for 2026, highlighting progress in inflation reduction, especially in housing and core services, and the need for clarity on economic growth and labor market trends amid divergent signals. It emphasizes the importance of monetary policy in maintaining price stability and maximum employment, while considering structural changes like AI's influence on productivity and employment. The speaker advocates for patience and credibility in policy decisions, aiming for a balanced approach to economic stability.

via Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank|
#ai-impact#economy#gdp-growth