Traders Put Nearly 40% Chance on Stagflation by 2026
TL;DR Summary
Kalshi traders now assign about a 40% probability of stagflation (high inflation with higher unemployment) by end-2026, up from 11% earlier, as April CPI hits 3.8% and unemployment sits at 4.3%; the odds of a soft landing are down to ~21%, with different views on inflation and outcomes from other markets like Polymarket.
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