Gulf Oil Flows Rebound to Pre-War Levels Amid Rising Tanker Attacks

Key points

• Crude exports averaged 18.3 million barrels per day on September 30, exceeding pre-war levels on 14 days in September.
• Saudi Arabia led the export surge by loading tankers from both the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf following a pipeline attack.
• At least seven tanker incidents were reported in the past week, including strikes on the VLCC Kazimah III and the Aframax tanker Lipsi.
• Shipping intelligence firm Marisks describes the Strait of Hormuz as a 'kill box' where Iranian forces may be launching missiles into predetermined engagement areas.
• Liquefied natural gas cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz rose to their highest level since February.

Background

This development follows a period of heightened tensions in the Middle East, including a U.S.-Israeli war with Iran that began in February 2026. Previous reports indicated that while some shipping routes remained open, attacks on tankers and logistical constraints had clouded the outlook for sustained oil flows. The current surge in exports comes after a memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran lapsed, and follows a September 10 attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline.

Why it matters

The rebound in oil exports helps alleviate tightness in the global oil market, particularly for Asian refiners, but the increasing frequency of tanker attacks poses a significant risk to global energy supply and could lead to further price volatility.

What to watch

Analysts will monitor whether the current export surge can be sustained despite the rising threat of kinetic attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Aden. The outcome of ongoing diplomatic efforts and the potential for further escalation between the U.S. and Iran will also be critical in determining the stability of global oil flows.