Oil markets in limbo as Iran conflict defies endgame modeling

Six months into the Iran conflict, energy markets face a murky outlook with JPMorgan noting there is no reliable baseline for pricing and risk, as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and multi-front violence widens disruptions. Oil hovers around $100 per barrel while US gasoline and diesel prices stay near record highs, yet demand destruction and rising US production have kept prices contained for now. Inventories have been drawn down more slowly than some forecasts, with China’s renewed demand and ongoing geopolitical tensions adding to uncertainty about the market’s endgame and the feasibility of any exit strategy.