Goldman Sachs: Recession Odds Trimmed to 20%

Goldman Sachs has lowered its recession forecast for the US economy, now estimating a 20% chance of a recession in the next 12 months, down from the previous projection of 25%. The firm remains below the consensus estimates of a 54% chance. Recent economic data, including a low unemployment rate, increased wages, and slow inflation, have reinforced Goldman Sachs' confidence in the strength of the US economy. However, some economists still believe a recession is likely in 2024. The positive economic outlook has led to references of a "Goldilocks" scenario, where the economy experiences stable growth without tipping into a recession.