Recession Indicator Predicts Delayed Downturn, Wall Street Veteran Warns
TL;DR
A reliable indicator, the yield curve, suggests that the next recession may be three years away, according to research from Credit Suisse's head of U.S. Equity Strategy and Quantitative Research. While the conventional wisdom is that a recession starts 11 months after the yield curve inverts, the un-inversion (or re-steepening) of the curve is a better indicator. Currently, Treasury futures imply that the yield curve will un-invert in June 2026, reflecting investors' improving view on the U.S. economy.
Topics:businessfinance#credit-suisse#economic-indicator#federal-reserve#finance#recession#yield-curve
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