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Economic Indicator

All articles tagged with #economic indicator

Walmart Recession Signal Flashes Warning of a Slowing US Economy
business11 days ago

Walmart Recession Signal Flashes Warning of a Slowing US Economy

A veteran market strategist says the Walmart Recession Signal (WRS)—which compares Walmart's stock to a luxury-stock basket—has surged to its highest level since the Global Financial Crisis and has historically risen before past US downturns. The gauge suggests stress on lower- and middle-income shoppers, rising private-credit concerns, and softer hiring and housing activity, signaling a potential significant US slowdown, though a swift Iran-war resolution could avert a recession.

"Assessing the Reliability of Yield Curve as a Recession Indicator"
finance2 years ago

"Assessing the Reliability of Yield Curve as a Recession Indicator"

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's recession probability tool, which uses the spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and three-month Treasury bill yields, suggests a 61.47% likelihood of a recession by or before January 2025. While not infallible, this leading indicator has a strong track record, with every recession since World War II being preceded by a yield-curve inversion. If accurate, a recession in 2024 could lead to a significant stock market pullback, but historical data shows that economic downturns and stock market corrections are typically short-lived events, ultimately offering opportunities for patient investors.

finance2 years ago

Recession Indicator Predicts Delayed Downturn, Wall Street Veteran Warns

A reliable indicator, the yield curve, suggests that the next recession may be three years away, according to research from Credit Suisse's head of U.S. Equity Strategy and Quantitative Research. While the conventional wisdom is that a recession starts 11 months after the yield curve inverts, the un-inversion (or re-steepening) of the curve is a better indicator. Currently, Treasury futures imply that the yield curve will un-invert in June 2026, reflecting investors' improving view on the U.S. economy.