SpaceX Stock Slides Below $140 as AI Spending Fears and Lockup Expiry Trigger $500B Market Cap Drop

Key points

• SpaceX stock closed below $140 on November 1, 2026, marking its lowest level since August 20 and a drop of over 6% in a single day.
• The decline erased more than $500 billion in market value since the October 6 peak, reducing the company's valuation from over $2.3 trillion to approximately $1.8 trillion.
• Investors are concerned about capital expenditure reaching $35 billion to $40 billion in the fourth quarter, with 83% of third-quarter spending allocated to AI infrastructure.
• Anthropic accounts for 34.5% of third-quarter revenue through a computing agreement worth up to $120.5 billion, raising concerns about customer concentration.
• The Super Intelligence segment generated $7.56 billion in revenue, up 830% year over year, while Starlink connectivity revenue rose to $5.25 billion.
• A potential merger with Tesla is under evaluation, with special committees formed on October 20, though no agreement has been reached.

Background

SpaceX debuted in June 2026 with a market cap near $2.2 trillion. Earlier in October, Elon Musk's net worth saw a $61 billion daily swing as SpaceX and Tesla shares rebounded, though analysts noted the speculative nature of these valuations. The current decline follows a period where SpaceX was valued at over $2.3 trillion, highlighting the volatility of its stock since its initial public offering.

How outlets are covering it

Finbold emphasizes the paper loss for early investors, noting a $1,000 investment is now worth approximately $948.73. Yahoo Finance highlights the technical breakdown below the $140 support level and the impact of the October 22 lockup expiry, which freed 1.3 billion shares for sale. The Globe and Mail focuses on the broader AI trade sell-off, comparing SpaceX's capital expenditure scrutiny to that of Alphabet and Microsoft, and questions whether the AI revenue surge will justify the massive infrastructure spending. All sources agree on the significant market value erosion but differ in emphasis: Finbold on investor returns, Yahoo on technical and market structure factors, and The Globe and Mail on the sustainability of AI spending.

Why it matters

The decline signals investor skepticism about the return on massive AI infrastructure investments, a trend affecting the broader tech sector. It also highlights the risks of customer concentration and the impact of lockup expiries on stock volatility. The potential Tesla merger and Starship Flight 15 next month could provide catalysts for a rebound, but the current trend reflects caution about capital expenditure outpacing profitability.

What to watch

Investors will watch for Starship Flight 15 next month, where a successful catch of both the booster and ship could support a rebound above $140. The outcome of the Tesla-SpaceX merger evaluation and the fourth-quarter capital expenditure figures will also be critical. A broader rebound in AI stocks could lift SpaceX, but continued skepticism about infrastructure spending may keep pressure on the stock.