Tax-Refund Boost to U.S. Spending May Fade, Goldman Warns

Goldman Sachs economists say the strong consumer boost from tax refunds in Q2 may be short‑lived, projecting real consumer spending growth slow to about 1–1.5% in the second half as real cash flow stagnates, even as GDP rose 1.5% in Q2 and retailer demand showed broad strength. The bank notes Q2 sales gains were helped by refunds and signals from retailers will be tested in upcoming earnings from Home Depot, Lowe's, Walmart and Target.