The Iran oil shock is here—and markets still aren’t pricing it in

Vox’s Future Perfect argues the Strait of Hormuz disruption from the Iran war is the largest oil-market shock in history, yet markets remain underprice it due to biases (the ostrich paradox). The piece draws a Covid-era parallel, noting how gradual information becomes a sudden shift once reality hits; if Hormuz stays materially restricted through June, the S&P 500 could be at least 10% lower by Labor Day, with IMF and other forecasters warning of recession risk. It urges paying attention to the real economic fallout beyond near-term political fixes.