SpaceX's IPO Glow Fades: A $10,000 Bet Could Wane by 2027, History Suggests

SpaceX priced its IPO at $135, peaked near $202, and has since fallen about 36% to roughly $129. Using historical data from the last decade’s large IPOs, the median first-year drop suggests potential further downside, with a path to about $112 by June 2027 (roughly 13% below today) and a risk of around $101 in a deeper early dip (about 20% below today). Consequently, a $10,000 investment today could be worth about $8,820 by mid-2027 under the median scenario. The piece notes SpaceX’s rich valuation (roughly 88x sales) and compelling growth prospects (Starlink, AI satellite ambitions), but argues investors should wait for a more attractive entry point rather than buying now, given the timeline to orbital data centers and the high multiple.