Gas Prices Under Trump Exceed Biden Averages Amid Iran Conflict

Key points

• Regular gasoline averaged $3.472 per gallon under Trump, marginally higher than the $3.471 average under Biden, per AAA.
• Diesel prices reached $4.343 per gallon under Trump, surpassing Biden’s $4.078 average, with a record high of $6.523 hit in September.
• The US-Israeli war with Iran, now in its ninth month, has disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, affecting global supplies.
• Trump’s approval rating fell to a record low of 31%, with only 23% approving of his economic handling, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.
• Inflation expectations for the next year rose to 4.7%, up from 3.4% before the Iran conflict began in February.

Background

Recent coverage highlights a disconnect between macroeconomic indicators and voter sentiment. While overall inflation is lower than under Biden, specific spikes in gas and consumer goods have driven a 72% disapproval rating on inflation. Voters in swing states and Alaska, where gas averages $5.03 per gallon, have expressed frustration over unfulfilled promises to lower costs, complicating the administration’s narrative of an economic 'golden age' ahead of the midterms.

Why it matters

Rising fuel costs are a critical factor in the upcoming midterm elections, potentially threatening Republican majorities in both legislative chambers. The disparity between nominal price increases and inflation-adjusted values remains a point of debate, but the immediate impact on consumer budgets and political approval is significant.

What to watch

Analysts suggest gas prices may drop drastically once the Iran conflict ends, as Middle East oil exports have recently surpassed pre-war levels. However, the political fallout from current high prices will likely dominate the November 3 election cycle.