IMF: Iran War Could Push Global Economy Toward Recession

IMF warns that a prolonged Iran conflict could spark a global recession, downgrading 2026 growth to about 3.1% in the baseline and outlining three downside paths: roughly 2% growth with inflation above 6% in a severe scenario, 2.5% growth with about 5.4% inflation in an adverse case, or 3.1% growth with 4.4% inflation in the baseline. The UK faces the sharpest G7 downgrade (about 0.8% growth) and near-4% inflation; the US growth is trimmed to 2.3%. Oil hovering around $100+ a barrel as Hormuz disruptions threaten energy costs. The IMF recommends targeted temporary support and warns against untargeted subsidies, while urging an end to the conflict to limit damage to the global economy.