El Niño reshapes where tropical storms form this year
TL;DR Summary
El Niño—the warm phase of the ENSO cycle—tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity while shifting tropical-storm formation toward the Pacific, potentially increasing near-Hawaii activity and moving typhoons eastward in the Northwest Pacific; NOAA projects a below-normal Atlantic season this year (about 55% chance), with regional variations in storm numbers and tracks driven by ENSO phases.
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- As hurricane season begins June 1, experts urge preparedness despite forecast for fewer storms ABC13 Houston
- 2026 Atlantic hurricane season begins: A strong El Niño could bring fewer storms Yale Climate Connections
- Fog & fire risk but quiet in the tropics as hurricane season begins Monday News4JAX
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