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Enso

All articles tagged with #enso

Could a Super El Niño Rewrite This Winter’s Weather?
science1 day ago

Could a Super El Niño Rewrite This Winter’s Weather?

Forecasts suggest a rare, potentially strong “super El Niño” could form as ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific warm, altering global weather for months. If it strengthens, it may suppress Atlantic hurricanes, bring warmer northern U.S. winters and wetter conditions to the South, with timing possibly starting as soon as June and peaking in fall/winter. However, forecasts face the spring predictability barrier and there’s no certainty yet that it will reach “super” strength.

Early 2026 Outlook: Atlantic Hurricane Season Expected to Be Slightly Below Average
weather1 day ago

Early 2026 Outlook: Atlantic Hurricane Season Expected to Be Slightly Below Average

Colorado State University’s April forecast predicts 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes in the 2026 Atlantic season, a below-average tally driven by a likely later-arriving El Niño; the season runs June 1–Nov. 30 with about 75% of the long-term average, and there’s a 32% chance of a major hurricane making U.S. landfall and 35% for the Caribbean, with NOAA expected to release an additional outlook later.

"Preparing for La Niña: Impact on Hurricane Season and California Weather"
weather2 years ago

"Preparing for La Niña: Impact on Hurricane Season and California Weather"

La Niña is expected to form this year, with a 62% chance of developing during the upcoming summer months, potentially worsening the Atlantic hurricane season by weakening wind shear and increasing storm activity. While its impact on U.S. summer weather is minimal, La Niña typically brings cold and snow to the Northwest and dry conditions to the southern tier during winter, with warmer temperatures in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic. The recent strong El Niño is weakening and expected to transition to "ENSO-neutral" conditions, with the entire El Niño/La Niña cycle known to affect weather in the U.S. and around the world.

"2024 Hurricane Season: Forecasting Tropical Threats"
weather2 years ago

"2024 Hurricane Season: Forecasting Tropical Threats"

The 2024 hurricane season in the Atlantic basin is approaching, and forecasters are closely monitoring the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern to predict tropical cyclone activity. Early indications suggest a neutral or La Niña status for the upcoming season, potentially leading to more active hurricane activity. The National Hurricane Center plans to introduce changes, including experimental forecast cones and more frequent adjustments to watches and warnings. However, experts caution against preseason hype, emphasizing the unpredictability of hurricane activity and the limitations of long-term forecasts. The official list of names for the 2024 tropical cyclone season has been released, with retired names replaced by new ones.