Immigration slowdown dampens U.S. growth forecasts for 2025–26

Brookings economists project 2025 net migration to be negative (roughly -295,000 to -10,000) and 2026 to remain negative or uncertain (-925,000 to +185,000), driven by slower new arrivals under stricter policy. The slower immigration slows labor-force growth, lowers breakeven job gains to about 20,000–50,000 per month in late 2025 and possibly negative in 2026, and dampens GDP and consumer spending by roughly 0.2–0.3 percentage points in 2025 and 0.1–0.3 points in 2026, with $40–$60 billion less consumer spending in 2025 and $10–$40 billion less in 2026. The projections hinge on multiple inflow/outflow components (green cards, temporary visas, refugees, parole/NTAs, entries without inspection) and contrast with other estimates like the CBO, underscoring substantial uncertainty amid ongoing policy shifts.