2026 El Niño poised to become strongest on record, peak this winter

Forecasters say this year’s El Niño is likely to reach “super” strength—odds above 90%—and peak between October and December, potentially the strongest since 1950. Expect a hotter late summer with Southeast heat, a wetter winter in the southern U.S., and drier conditions in the North, along with suppressed Atlantic hurricane activity; the pattern is expected to persist into early 2027, though stronger events don’t always guarantee bigger impacts.