IRGC Launches Direct US Voter Campaign Ahead of Midterms

Key points

The IRGC released a letter to US voters five weeks before the November 3 midterms, accusing the Trump administration of misleading the public about the war and Iran’s nuclear program.

IRGC spokesperson Hossein Mohebbi called Trump an 'inveterate liar' and argued that Americans are unaware of the true costs of the conflict, which began on February 28.

The letter declares Iran the victor, stating that US strikes failed to achieve declared goals, including curtailing the nuclear program, despite hitting government and residential buildings.

Oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to about 13.2 million barrels per day, roughly 77% of pre-war levels, according to trade analytics firm Kpler.

Both US and Iranian officials spoke with mediators on Monday as part of renewed efforts to end the war, with Tehran stating diplomacy is the only resolution path.

Background

This appeal follows a period of escalating rhetoric, including Trump’s UN General Assembly threat to 'annihilate' Iran and President Pezeshkian’s defiant rebuttal. Previous reports indicated the IRGC had become the effective decision-maker in Iran’s decentralized power structure during the conflict. The current diplomatic efforts build on earlier, unsuccessful backchannel talks pursued by US officials via Iraqi Kurdish intermediaries.

How outlets are covering it

Al Jazeera highlights the IRGC’s direct appeal to the American public, framing it as an attempt to exploit perceived weakness in the US political system. Fox News emphasizes the administration’s counter-narrative, citing Trump’s claim that Iran is 'failing very badly' and that the war will end soon. Fox also notes internal Iranian instability, including student protests and a security buildup in Tehran, which contrasts with the IRGC’s confident external messaging. The two outlets present a stark contrast: Tehran asserts victory and US failure, while Washington insists on Iranian defeat and imminent resolution.

Why it matters

The IRGC’s direct outreach to US voters signals a shift in Iran’s conflict strategy, aiming to influence domestic US politics to force a diplomatic outcome. The divergence in assessments of the war’s progress and the status of the Strait of Hormuz underscores the high stakes of the upcoming midterms, which will determine whether Trump faces legislative obstacles in his final two years. The recovery in oil flows and renewed mediation efforts suggest a potential, though fragile, path to de-escalation.

What to watch

Watch for the outcome of the November 3 US midterm elections and any subsequent shifts in US-Iran diplomatic talks. Monitor the stability of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and any further IRGC or US statements regarding the conflict’s status. The next few weeks will likely see intensified propaganda efforts from both sides as the election approaches.