US Economic Data Shows Mixed Results Ahead of Midterms
US GDP growth outpaces G7 peers, but inflation, rising borrowing costs, and slowed job creation create economic headwinds for voters ahead of the November 3 midterms.
Key points
- US GDP expanded at an annualized 2.2% rate, outperforming other G7 nations since late 2024.
- Inflation stands at 3.7%, higher than the 3% rate at the start of Trump's second term, driven by tariffs and the Iran conflict.
- Job creation slowed to an average of 34,000 monthly, down from 122,000 in Biden's final year, though unemployment remains low at 4.2%.
- The 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 5%, pushing 30-year mortgage rates to 7.4% and straining housing affordability.
- ITEP estimates the middle quintile of households is $1,700 worse off in 2026 due to tariff and subsidy impacts.
Background
Recent polls show Trump's approval rating at a career low of 31%, with 71% of Americans viewing the country as on the 'wrong track.' Voter dissatisfaction with the cost of living and inflation is a primary driver of this decline, prompting some Republican candidates to distance themselves from the president ahead of the midterms.
How outlets are covering it
BBC analysis highlights that while overall GDP growth is robust, it is heavily supported by an AI investment boom, with data center spending nearly doubling. BBC notes that inflation and borrowing costs are rising due to tariffs and the Iran war, negatively impacting middle and lower-income households. AP News frames the economic situation as a key battleground for the November 3 elections, emphasizing the contrast between Trump's optimistic claims and the tangible financial pressures felt by average Americans.
Why it matters
Economic performance is the central issue in the 2026 midterms. Rising inflation, higher borrowing costs, and slowed job growth are eroding public support for the administration, potentially influencing congressional control and future policy directions.
What to watch
Voters will weigh these economic indicators in the November 3 midterms. The outcome will determine whether Republicans maintain control of Congress, impacting the continuation of current tax cuts and tariff policies.
- FACT FOCUS: When it comes to Trump's economy, these are the numbers that matter before Nov. 3 AP News
- 3 Charts That Explain the Economy as Voters Head to the Polls The New York Times
- How is the US economy really doing under President Trump? BBC
- Five Ways Americans’ Finances Have Changed Under Trump WSJ
- A new poll shows what voters are thinking 2 weeks out from Election Day NPR
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