El Niño Boosts Expected Pacific Storm Surge for 2026

NOAA projects an above-average 2026 Pacific hurricane season driven by developing El Niño, with the eastern Pacific seeing about 15–22 named storms, 9–14 hurricanes, and 5–9 major hurricanes (ACE near 120–190% of median; midpoint ~18.5 named storms, 11.5 hurricanes, 7 major). The central Pacific is expected to have 5–13 tropical cyclones. TSR forecasts an about 25% above-average Northwest Pacific typhoon season (27 tropical storms, 18 typhoons, 11 major typhoons, ACE ~410), also aided by El Niño. The warming pacific waters linked to El Niño typically boost activity in these regions, with historic benchmarks like 2015’s Patricia and 1997’s Linda cited; the season has already seen impactful activity from Super Typhoon Sinlaku, and current ACE levels remain well above average.