All articles tagged with #hurricane season
The National Hurricane Center confirms Tropical Storm Dolly formed in the far eastern Atlantic as the fourth named storm of the 2026 season, moving west at about 24 mph with 40 mph winds. It’s not expected to strengthen over the next 48 hours and could weaken to a tropical wave by the weekend. No immediate impacts to the U.S. or Florida are anticipated, though the track remains uncertain while Dolly remains far away.
Forecasters are tracking nine storms/potential systems—seven in the Pacific and two in the Atlantic—as hurricane season intensifies. In Hawaii, Moke weakened to a tropical depression offshore, bringing heavy rain and gusts; Lala remains a tropical storm after 12 days; Iselle formed and could briefly reach hurricane strength before dissipating. Four additional Pacific disturbances are being watched, including one with a 70% seven‑day development chance and another with a 30% chance. In the Atlantic, a system southeast of Bermuda has about a 50% chance of forming within 48 hours to seven days, and a tropical wave off Africa may also develop as it moves westward. El Niño is complicating formation in the Atlantic, but tropical development remains possible.
A rapidly strengthening El Niño could become the strongest on record, with NOAA forecasting a very strong event this fall and winter; it could suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing upper-level wind shear, but it is also expected to bring a wetter, potentially snowier winter to North Carolina, possibly easing drought—though exact outcomes are not guaranteed and forecasts will evolve.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has started unusually slowly, with NOAA forecasting 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, and 1–3 major hurricanes, while CSU keeps its July forecast at nine named storms (four hurricanes, one major). So far two tropical storms—Arthur and Bertha—have formed in the Gulf. Forecasters expect the peak from mid-August to mid-October, but signals point to below-average activity due to a strengthening El Niño and cooler Atlantic waters that raise wind shear in the main development region. A few storms could still form, but this season is shaping up to be among the quietest in years; the Pacific is more active, and the lingering El Niño could influence 2027 as well.
Tropical Storm Bertha weakened but continued a slow westward crawl along the Gulf Coast, with tropical-storm warnings in effect from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana and watches further west. Maximum winds near 50 mph with higher gusts, potential 2–4 foot storm surge from the mouth of the Mississippi to the LA border, and 1–4 inch rain (locally up to 6 inches) are expected as Bertha nears Texas; forecasters say it will likely weaken and could move inland over Texas in about 48 hours, becoming post-tropical thereafter while the hurricane season outlook remains below average.
Tropical Storm Bertha formed in the Gulf late July 20, is currently near stationary about 140 miles south of Panama City, Florida, with 40 mph winds, and is forecast to move slowly toward the northern Gulf Coast with potential strengthening through July 21. Tropical-storm watches and a storm surge watch are in effect, as heavy rainfall (2-4 inches, locally up to 8 inches) could lead to flash flooding, especially in urban areas. A westward shift toward Texas Hill Country could raise flash-flood concerns there. Bertha is the season's second named storm, and NOAA expects a below-normal Atlantic season due to El Niño, with 8-14 named storms and 3-6 hurricanes.
A tropical depression formed off Florida along the Gulf Coast with a tropical-storm warning in effect for the Florida Panhandle through Monday night. Forecasters say it could become a tropical storm named Bertha, but strong Saharan dust and wind shear likely prevent hurricane formation; residents from Florida, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana should monitor the system for potential high winds and heavy rains.
NOAA and climate models indicate El Niño will strengthen and likely persist into early 2027, dampening Atlantic tropical development via increased wind shear and forecasting a below-average 2026 hurricane season (CSU projects about 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes). For South Florida, the pattern points to a cooler, wetter, and potentially stormier winter driven by a persistent subtropical jetstream, signaling notable contrasts to the prior winter.
Tropical Storm Arthur, the first named storm of the season after forming off Texas, is expected to bring 5–10 inches of rain (with isolated totals up to 20 inches) from Texas across the Southeast, triggering flash flood concerns and prompting disaster declarations in parts of Texas; forecasters say rainfall duration and movement will largely drive flooding risk, even as El Niño keeps overall hurricane activity relatively subdued for the year.
The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to about 340.3 million barrels, its lowest level since 1983, as officials have released roughly 75 million barrels since late February to blunt high energy prices amid the war with Iran; last week alone saw an 8.9 million-barrel draw. At current levels, the SPR is just under half full, and while the rate of releases may slow after the pledged 172 million barrels, experts warn the reduced buffer could leave the U.S. vulnerable to hurricane-related disruptions in Gulf production and supply.
Space City Weather expects a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season largely due to developing El Niño, reducing overall storm activity but keeping Texas hazard levels nonzero. Readers are urged to have a plan, know their ZIP-code evacuation zones, assemble a multi-day disaster kit, consider power outages and medical needs, and stay updated via the site and app for alerts and forecasts.
As the Atlantic hurricane season opens, forecasters predict a below-average year driven by a developing El Niño that raises wind shear in the Atlantic (3–6 hurricanes and 8–14 named storms), while the Pacific is expected to be active (9–14 hurricanes). The forecast does not indicate landfalls; even a quieter season can still bring major storms. El Niño is likely to take hold by July (82% chance) and remain through winter 2026–27 (96% chance), with broader weather impacts from drought to altered monsoons across the U.S. and past examples like Hilary and Dora highlighting the potential severity regardless of overall counts.
The Atlantic hurricane season is underway and FEMA is operating with staffing shortages, raising concerns about the agency’s ability to coordinate evacuations, relief, and recovery efforts across state and local partners as powerful storms threaten affected communities.
As the 2026 hurricane season begins, FEMA faces its smallest disaster workforce since 2021, about a 20% drop since Trump took office, plus leadership vacancies and a backlog of state aid requests. Emergency managers warn this could weaken disaster response just as NOAA forecasts several tropical storms, while GAO cautions that staffing cuts could undermine readiness across FEMA and related agencies (EPA and the Army Corps). The administration and agency statements insist the system remains prepared, but critics say reforms are being pursued without strengthening staffing and funding.
CNN reveals Kristi Noem and Corey Lewandowski throttled FEMA for a year, stalling more than $15 billion in disaster funds, triggering staff departures and leaving the agency under-prepared for hurricane season. With new DHS leadership and ongoing investigations, the White House is trying to repair the damage, but officials warn it could take years to rebuild FEMA’s capacity and trust.