California Faces a Potentially Powerful El Niño Winter

Forecasters say there’s an 82% chance El Niño will emerge in the Pacific and a 96% chance it will be active this winter, with up to a 37% chance of a 'very strong' event. A powerful El Niño could bring a wetter, potentially flood-prone winter to Southern California, though outcomes are uncertain and influenced by ongoing marine heat waves and other atmospheric factors. Past strong El Niños caused floods and erosion, but not every event delivers the same rainfall, and California remains vulnerable to coastal and ecological impacts even if rainfall isn’t extreme.