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Climate Prediction Center

All articles tagged with #climate prediction center

weather12 days ago•8 min saved

California Faces a Potentially Powerful El Niño Winter

Forecasters say there’s an 82% chance El Niño will emerge in the Pacific and a 96% chance it will be active this winter, with up to a 37% chance of a 'very strong' event. A powerful El Niño could bring a wetter, potentially flood-prone winter to Southern California, though outcomes are uncertain and influenced by ongoing marine heat waves and other atmospheric factors. Past strong El Niños caused floods and erosion, but not every event delivers the same rainfall, and California remains vulnerable to coastal and ecological impacts even if rainfall isn’t extreme.

via Los Angeles Times|

#california-weather #climate-prediction-center #el-nino

weather1 month ago•5 min saved

Could a Super El Niño Finally End Colorado’s Drought?

A potential super El Niño could bring above-average precipitation and substantial snowfall to Colorado, offering hope that the state’s long-running drought may ease. Forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center show a trajectory toward El Niño conditions this summer and a non‑zero chance (up to a third) of a “strong” or super El Niño by late 2026, with warmer Pacific waters potentially boosting storms and the monsoon. Past super El Niños (1982–83, 1997–98, 2015–16) produced wetter winters in parts of Colorado, but impacts are uncertain and depend on regional factors; current statewide snowpack is only about 22% of normal, stressing reservoirs, so even a powerful El Niño is not a guaranteed fix. Authorities remain cautiously optimistic but emphasize the unpredictable nature of long-range weather.

via The Coloradoan|

#climate-prediction-center #colorado-drought #el-nino

weather2 years ago•1 min saved

NOAA Forecast: Early Summer Heat Wave Predicted for Select States

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center forecasts warmer-than-average spring weather for most U.S. states, with a higher likelihood in the Pacific Northwest, Upper Midwest, and Great Lakes regions. Additionally, a wetter-than-normal spring is expected for a large portion of the country, while El Niño is anticipated to fade out, leading to a "neutral" situation before La Niña takes over, potentially impacting fall and winter weather patterns.

via The Hill|

#climate-prediction-center #el-nino #la-nina

weather2 years ago•1 min saved

"From El Niño to La Niña: What's Next for Global Weather Patterns?"

The strong El Niño winter is expected to fade away between April and June, leading to an ENSO-neutral phase known as "La Nada." This phase, characterized by the absence of both El Niño and La Niña, can make seasonal weather predictions more challenging. However, La Niña is likely to follow over the summer, potentially impacting weather conditions through April 2024. El Niño and La Niña years bring different weather patterns, with El Niño bringing cold, wet winters to California and the Southern U.S., and La Niña bringing dry conditions to the Southern half of the country and potentially leading to busy and destructive hurricane seasons.

via KTLA Los Angeles|

#climate-prediction-center #el-nino #enso-neutral

weather2 years ago•2 min saved

"From Cold Snap to January Thaw: Weather Pattern Shift Brings Wild Temperature Swing to US"

A major weather pattern change is set to bring a significant swing in temperatures across the US next week, with above-average temperatures forecast for the entire Lower 48. The shift is driven by a change in the jet stream's positioning, which will trap cold air in Canada and allow warm air from the tropics to surge northward into the US. This will result in milder conditions and drastic temperature changes, with some areas experiencing 40- to 50-degree swings from this week's cold to next week's unseasonable warmth. The above-average warmth is expected to persist through the end of January, according to the Climate Prediction Center.

via CNN|

#climate-prediction-center #jet-stream #temperature-swing

weather2 years ago•1 min saved

The White Christmas Forecast for 2023: What to Expect

The chance of having a white Christmas in Portland, Oregon is slim, with only a 2% chance of snowfall at the Portland International Airport on Christmas Day. In the past, there have been only two years with significant snowfall on Christmas, and this year's forecast predicts warmer temperatures than normal. While precipitation is expected, it will likely be in the form of rain due to the warmer conditions. Higher elevations may see snow from previous snow events near the Cascade mountain passes.

via KOIN.com|

#climate-prediction-center #portland #rainy-conditions

weather2 years ago•1 min saved

Michigan Braces for Chilly Blue Zone Weekend

Michigan is expected to experience a cooling trend with below-average temperatures and abnormally dry conditions as November comes to an end. Highs in the 30s and 40s are anticipated, making it feel like winter is approaching. The Upper Peninsula may see temperatures in the 20s, giving Thanksgiving a more Christmas-like feel. However, the long-range forecast suggests that temperatures may rise again in the future, with warmer than average conditions expected.

via MLive.com|

#climate-prediction-center #cold-front #forecast

weather2 years ago•8 min saved

El Niño's Impact on Winter Weather Across the US

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center forecasts that Connecticut will experience a warmer and wetter winter due to the presence of a strong El Niño. However, the impact of El Niño on the Northeast's weather is difficult to predict, as other factors also influence the region's climate. While there may be fewer big storms, the ones that do occur could be intense. The forecast is an average, so extreme weather conditions are still possible. Connecticut's Emergency Management Division is preparing for all possibilities, including significant snowstorms.

via The Connecticut Mirror|

#climate-prediction-center #connecticut #el-nino

weather3 years ago•4 min saved

Experts divided on 2023 hurricane season outlook

The United Kingdom's national weather service has released a tropical weather outlook for the 2023 Atlantic basin hurricane season, predicting a very active season with around 20 named storms and 11 hurricanes. This outlook differs significantly from those calling for a season with activity that could be at or even below average. The discrepancy is due to the emerging El Niño in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean, which could either allow for several months of favorable conditions or lead to more reduced tropical activity. The Climate Prediction Center is predicting a near-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2023.

via Fox Weather |

#atlantic-basin #climate-prediction-center #el-nino