California Faces a Potentially Record-Breaking El Niño Onset

Scientists say a Super El Niño is forming that could become the strongest on record, with California likely to bear the brunt through coastal flooding, heavy rainfall at lower elevations, and snow in the mountains. Sea levels could rise six inches to a foot as Kelvin waves boost coastal heights, and this year’s 18-year King Tide cycle will amplify impacts, potentially affecting about 170,000 people and $60 billion in property more than a non-El Niño year. While rainfall patterns remain uncertain, the coastal hazards are deemed almost certain, driven by warmer Pacific waters and larger waves, and intensified by climate change. Past events like the 1997–1998 “Super El Niño” inform expectations but aren’t guaranteed to repeat, as precipitation outcomes can vary from year to year.