Gulf Could Welcome 2026’s First Named Storm as Arthur Could Form Within 24 Hours

Forecasters say a potential tropical cyclone near southern Texas has a 70% chance to become Tropical Storm Arthur in the Gulf of Mexico within about 24 hours, with a tropical-storm watch in effect from Sargent, TX to Morgan City, LA. Regardless of Arthur’s formation, the system is expected to bring heavy rainfall across southern and eastern Texas, parts of Louisiana and Mississippi, risking flash flooding (as much as 5–8 inches already fallen, with 10+ inches possible locally), gusty winds, storm surge up to 4 feet, rip currents, and possible tornadoes along the NW Gulf Coast. NOAA also expects a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season (8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, 1–3 major) due to El Niño.