NOAA raises odds of a historically strong El Niño this fall

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center now puts an 81% chance that this El Niño will reach a “very strong” level by fall, up from 63% in June, with a 97% chance it lasts into early 2027. Only about seven of the last 75 El Niño events have been “very strong,” so this could be among the strongest on record. Very strong El Niños tend to reshape global weather—bringing heat waves, droughts, and heavy rainfall in different regions—while likely reducing Atlantic hurricane activity and potentially yielding a milder winter for parts of the U.S.; it may also raise high-tide flooding risk on the West Coast and affect marine life and algal blooms. The strongest on record was the 1982-83 event (RONI +2.5°C). Forecasts can still shift and impacts are not guaranteed.