Nolo set to become major hurricane, threatening Hawaii with record rainfall

Key points

• Nolo is expected to reach hurricane status by Thursday night and potentially become a Category 3 major hurricane by Saturday.
• The storm will remain within 200 miles of the Big Island’s southern shore for over 48 hours, allowing for prolonged heavy rainfall.
• Forecasters warn of 15 to 20 inches of rain on the Big Island, with isolated areas potentially receiving up to 35 inches.
• Hawaii is experiencing its third hurricane threat in 2026, following Lala and Lowell, a record for the state.
• El Niño conditions are cited as a primary driver for the unusually active Pacific hurricane season, which has seen 17 named storms form.

Background

Hawaii has historically faced few direct hurricane impacts, with only six recorded hurricanes passing within 50 miles of the state prior to 2026. The 2026 season has been exceptionally active due to El Niño, which creates favorable low wind shear and warm water conditions in the Pacific. Earlier this year, Hurricane Lala caused widespread damage, including the loss of approximately 100 homes, while Hurricane Lowell brought damaging winds and heavy rain to Kauai and Niihau in September. These events have left parts of the islands vulnerable to further flooding from Nolo.

How outlets are covering it

USA Today emphasizes the unprecedented nature of three hurricane threats in a single year, noting that Hawaii has tripled the number of hurricane watches compared to the entire U.S. mainland. CBS News highlights the specific risk of catastrophic flooding and mudslides on the Big Island, noting that Nolo could become a major hurricane by the weekend. The Washington Post focuses on the storm’s rapid intensification and the potential for life-threatening winds and rain. Hawaii News Now confirms the hurricane and flood watches, noting that while the Big Island faces the most severe threats, Kauai and Oahu are primarily concerned with gusty winds and large surf. All sources agree on the severe rainfall totals and the need for immediate preparation, though they vary in emphasis on the broader climate context versus immediate local impacts.

Why it matters

The potential for catastrophic flooding and mudslides poses a significant threat to life and property in Hawaii, particularly in areas already damaged by previous storms. The unprecedented frequency of hurricane threats in 2026 highlights the impact of El Niño on Pacific storm activity and underscores the need for robust emergency preparedness and infrastructure resilience in the region.

What to watch

Nolo is expected to pass south of the Big Island from Friday to Sunday, with the heaviest rainfall and strongest winds occurring during this period. The storm is forecast to turn westward on Sunday and move back into the open Pacific. Residents are advised to follow evacuation orders, prepare emergency supplies, and avoid driving through flooded areas. The National Hurricane Center will continue to monitor Nolo’s path and intensity, as well as other active storms in the Pacific, including Hurricane Polo.