Hormuz Traffic Data Clash: US Claims Record Oil Flows, Trackers Show Near-Zero

Key points

• US officials claim 40 ships and 18 million barrels of oil transited Hormuz on Tuesday, a wartime record, while Iran insists the strait is closed except for pre-approved vessels.
• Independent tracking firms like Kpler and Lloyd’s List Intelligence report only 5-13 vessels per day, far below US claims, with some ships using 'dark' transits to avoid detection.
• US Energy Secretary Chris Wright claimed oil exports exceeded pre-war levels when including bypass pipelines, but critics argue he is aggregating multi-day data into single-day figures.
• Iran’s IRGC claims two tankers hit mines while attempting to cross an 'illegal route,' while Saudi Arabia reports an Iranian attack killed two Filipino sailors on a tanker.
• The Joint Maritime Information Center rates Hormuz risk as 'severe' due to uncharted mines, despite US claims of having cleared the strait.

Background

The conflict began on February 28, 2026, when the US and Israel attacked Iran, leading to a six-month war. Prior to the war, an average of 100 ships and 20 million barrels of oil passed through Hormuz daily. Since March, traffic has fallen to an average of seven vessels per day according to PortWatch. Iran has imposed a blockade, demanding the US withdraw its naval presence, pay damages, and lift sanctions before reopening the strait. Previous attempts at negotiation, including the Islamabad memorandum, have stalled, with Iran hardening its conditions for reopening.

How outlets are covering it

The US government, including President Trump and Energy Secretary Chris Wright, asserts that Hormuz is open and under US control, with record oil flows. They argue that independent trackers miss 'dark' transits and smaller vessels. Iran, through Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and the IRGC, insists the strait is closed and under its control, warning that ships using US-designated routes risk being targeted. Independent maritime analysts, such as those from Kpler and Lloyd’s List Intelligence, provide data that aligns more closely with Iran’s claims, showing significantly lower traffic than the US reports. Critics like Samir Madani of TankerTrackers.com accuse the US of 'mathemagics' by aggregating multi-day data to inflate single-day figures.

Why it matters

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global energy chokepoint, carrying one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas during peacetime. The dispute over its status affects global oil prices, currently hovering around $90-95 per barrel, and impacts the economies of Gulf states and global energy markets. The conflict also raises concerns about maritime security and the reliability of official data in wartime, with potential implications for future negotiations and the stability of the region.

What to watch

The US and Iran are likely to continue their competing claims, with the US pushing for increased oil flows and Iran maintaining its blockade. Independent tracking data will remain crucial for assessing the true state of the strait. The conflict may see further military strikes, as both sides trade blows, and negotiations remain paused. The outcome will depend on whether the US can sustain its naval presence and whether Iran can enforce its blockade, with potential impacts on global energy markets and diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict.