Trump’s approval hits record lows as GOP candidates distance themselves ahead of midterms

Key points

• Approval ratings: The Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll shows 33% approval, NBC News shows 34%, and Fox News shows 36%, all representing second-term lows.
• Democratic lead: Democrats lead Republicans by 8 points in the Post poll, 9 points in Fox’s, and 10 points in NBC’s among registered voters.
• Economic pain: Only 21% to 27% of respondents approve of Trump’s handling of the cost of living or inflation, with 71% of adults saying the country is on the 'wrong track.'
• GOP strategy: A Reuters review found that 41 of 62 competitive Republican congressional candidates broke with Trump on policy or downplayed their ties to him.
• Internal divide: Fox News reports 95% approval among MAGA Republicans versus 47% among non-MAGA Republicans, highlighting a growing rift within the party.

Background

This decline follows a trend noted in our October 7 coverage, where Trump’s approval was already at record lows in 39 states. Earlier reports in October indicated that economic concerns, specifically a 26% approval rating for his economic handling, were driving much of the dissatisfaction. The current data confirms that these issues have intensified, with the Iran conflict and rising gas prices now cited as major factors in voter discontent.

How outlets are covering it

While all three major polls agree on the low approval numbers, they highlight different aspects of the political landscape. The Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll emphasizes the sharp drop in approval among Republicans, with 37% of GOP voters wanting the party to move in a different direction. Fox News focuses on the internal party divide, noting the stark difference in approval between MAGA and non-MAGA Republicans. NBC News highlights the broader national mood, with 71% of adults saying the country is on the 'wrong track' and expressing distrust toward both major parties. The White House, represented by spokesperson Davis Ingle, rejects the notion of distancing, calling Trump the 'unequivocal leader' and 'best messenger' for the party, while some candidates like Byron Donalds maintain his endorsement despite removing his name from campaign websites.

Why it matters

The low approval ratings and Democratic lead pose a significant threat to Republican control of Congress in the November 3 midterms. The party’s inability to effectively mobilize its base while appealing to independents could lead to a loss of majorities in both the House and Senate. This dynamic forces GOP candidates to navigate a delicate balance between maintaining loyalty to Trump’s base and distancing themselves from his unpopular policies to win competitive races.

What to watch

The next two weeks will be critical for Republican candidates as they attempt to rally their base while mitigating the damage from Trump’s low approval. The White House is expected to continue emphasizing Trump’s role as a motivator, while candidates may further adjust their messaging to appeal to independent voters. The outcome of the midterms will likely hinge on the party’s ability to turn out its base without alienating swing voters.