Russia’s Fourth Large-Scale Strike Against Ukraine Ahead of NATO Summit

ISW reports that Russia launched its fourth large-scale missile-and-drone attack on Ukraine since June 1, overnight July 5–6, with Kyiv heavily targeted and dozens killed or wounded. Russia fired about 419 missiles and drones, including 29 ballistic missiles and 18 strike drones; Ukraine shot down 326 drones and 37 missiles, but ballistic missiles still caused major destruction in Kyiv and other locations. Ukraine lacks sufficient Patriot interceptors and urged Western air-defense support for the NATO summit, with deliveries contracted but not arriving until 2027. Separately, Ukraine conducted its deepest long-range drone strike to date against Russia’s Omsk oil refinery. ISW characterizes the strikes as part of Russia’s Phase Zero strategy to deter Western backing and test NATO resolve, as Moscow also expands operations near NATO assets and intensifies its oil-energy targeting across Ukraine and occupied territories.