Fuel shock from Ukraine strikes rattles Russia’s economy

Ukraine's drone strikes on Russian refineries have sparked a fuel crisis that’s fueling inflation, slowing industry, and pushing Russia toward GDP stagnation. June inflation reached about 10.6%, with analysts warning the hit could be a temporary spike if refinery capacity recovers; forecasts push end-2026 inflation to around 6.2% and keep the policy rate near 14%+. Monetary policy can't directly fix a fuel shortage, so the government must normalize the fuel market. Debt with floating rates burdens non-military firms, while refinery and oil output declines weigh on industrial production. The scale of damage depends on how long strikes last; a prolonged shortage could even push Russia toward rationing and mobilization economics, with broad civilian impact.